Friedrich Merz – Germany's Hope for Europe's Future
Why the outcome of Germany's upcoming elections matters for Europe's future
The German parliamentary elections on February 23, 2025, represent more than a domestic political shift. It is a pivotal moment for the future of Europe. The results could reshape the continent's trajectory for years as the EU's largest economy faces growing economic challenges, political fragmentation, and global uncertainties.
The economic crossroads: The end of Germany's old model
The other day, I had the opportunity to read an interview with Mr. Merz for The Economist, in which he said, "The business model of this country is gone." This stark statement reflects the reality of Germany's economy, which has been in recession for two consecutive years. Historically reliant on exports to China, cheap Russian gas, and American security guarantees, Germany now faces the daunting task of redefining its economic identity.
Merz's proposed solutions include slashing bureaucratic red tape, reconsidering energy strategies, and exploring long-term LNG contracts with the United States. However, skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of these plans without adjusting Germany's constitutional debt brake, which limits government borrowing and has stifled investment in infrastructure, digitalization, and defense.
Political fragmentation and the rise of the AfD
Germany’s political landscape has become increasingly fragmented, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) projected to double its seats in the Bundestag. Although mainstream parties, including the CDU, have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, the party's growing influence underscores widespread dissatisfaction with immigration policies and the cost of living.
Merz's CDU remains the favorite to win the most seats, with polling suggesting a potential 30% share. Yet, coalition negotiations are expected to be long and arduous, with the SPD potentially slipping to third place behind the AfD. The CDU might seek partnerships with the Greens or the SPD, but even a "grand coalition" may struggle to deliver stability, given voter disillusionment with past governance. Also, including the Greens could pose challenges for implementing planned reforms, particularly in energy policy.
Geopolitical implications: A new role for Germany in Europe
Merz has signaled his intent to restore Germany's leadership within the EU, particularly by strengthening the Weimar Triangle with France and Poland. His vision includes closer cooperation in defense, AI, and quantum computing. He supports a "concentric circles" model for EU integration, which could offer more flexibility to countries reluctant to commit to full integration.
However, Merz remains cautious about increasing defense spending beyond the NATO benchmark of 2% GDP, despite growing calls for Europe to take more responsibility in the face of potential American retrenchment under a possible second Trump presidency.
Immigration as a decisive issue
Immigration remains a polarizing issue in Germany and across Europe. The CDU's recent parliamentary motion on stricter border controls, passed with AfD support, sparked widespread protests and raised concerns about the party's commitment to its "firewall" against the far right.
Merz argues that tackling immigration effectively is essential to weakening extremist parties. Yet, his proposed measures risk straining relations with EU neighbors and undermining Germany's traditionally pro-European stance.
Implications for Europe's youth and future
The outcome of the German elections carries significant implications for Europe's youth. From climate policies and job opportunities to foreign policy stances on Ukraine and global cooperation, Germany's next government will influence EU priorities for years to come.
A CDU-led government might prioritize pro-market reforms and increased defense cooperation. However, the success of these initiatives will depend on coalition dynamics and the new government's ability to implement meaningful reforms without alienating key stakeholders.
Nuclear Power: A Path to Energy Security
One of Friedrich Merz's boldest proposals is the potential revival of Germany's nuclear energy program. With energy costs soaring and the need for stable, climate-friendly power increasing, Merz has positioned nuclear energy as a key pillar of Germany's future energy mix. The CDU supports research into next-generation small modular reactors (SMRs) and has even suggested a collaborative effort with France to develop these innovative reactors. SMRs promise efficient, low-waste, and reliable energy production, potentially offering a more sustainable alternative to intermittent renewable sources. If successful, this initiative could restore Germany's industrial competitiveness and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.
The stakes are high
The 2025 German elections are not just about choosing a new chancellor. They are a referendum on the country's future economic model, its approach to immigration, and its role in the European and global arenas. Friedrich Merz, as part of the EPP family, presents a vision of stability, reform, and renewed leadership for Europe. His policies face significant challenges that will test his leadership and Germany's resilience.
For Europe, a stable, forward-looking Germany is crucial for navigating the challenges of economic transformation, geopolitical uncertainty, and social cohesion. The decisions made in Berlin will reverberate across the continent, shaping the EU's future for decades to come. As young Europeans look ahead, the question remains: Can Germany lead Europe into a new era, with Friedrich Merz at the helm?